At current projections, Birds of Prey seems well on its way to being a hit. However, you might not realize that based on the conversation surrounding the movie. Due to the nature of superhero box office numbers, many casual fans have a distorted view of what counts as a financial success. When Joker, Captain Marvel, Avengers: Endgame, and Spider-Man: Far From Home all cross the billion-dollar line, anything less than a billion-dollar box office might seem like a failure. For some films like Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, even breaking the billion-dollar mark at the box office isn't enough to make it a clear success.
But, thankfully, this is rarely the case. With Birds of Prey projected to earn around $50 million dollars in its opening weekend, it might seem like the movie is on its way to underperforming, or even flopping, but that's not really the case in the least.
What Warrants a Flop or a Hit?
The metric for what counts as a hit is pretty straight forward. There is no static number a film needs to cross in order to be a hit. Instead, there's a ratio between box office numbers and budget. Logically, a film needs to earn more than it cost to make to earn a profit. But even if a film's production cost $100 million, the film wouldn't be automatically successful once it made $101 million at the box office.
While production budgets for films include everything from sets to actors' salaries and special effects, that total doesn't include the movie's marketing budget, which is often roughly the same as the entire production budget. On top of that, there are also other factors that cut into how much of the box office gross the studio actually receives. Theaters take their cut, and foreign distributors take a cut of the international box office. Ultimately, a good metric to determine whether or not a film is successful is this: if the film earns 2 to 2.5 times its production budget on the worldwide box office, it's a success.
For this reason, lower budget films can be far more profitable than films that earn more at the box office but cost a lot to make. In 2019, Captain Marvel and Spider-Man: Far From Home grossed higher than Joker, yet Joker, with its $62.5 million dollar budget, was far more profitable. Justice League earned $657.9 million at the worldwide box office, which was a seismic flop. However, Shazam! is considered a hit with its worldwide gross of $364.6 million because that movie's production budget was $100 million to Justice League's $300 million.
Let's Talk About Birds of Prey
Birds of Prey is rated R, which means that teenagers and families won't be watching the adult-oriented movie. R-rated films tend to gross less at the box office than PG-13 films. However, it's been budgeted with that in mind and is a relatively inexpensive film, so it needs less to turn a profit.
Given this background, what does Birds of Prey need to earn in order to be profitable? The production budget for Birds of Prey is estimated to be $97.1 million dollars. In order to earn a profit at the maximum estimate, it needs to earn $242.75 million orldwide. Present estimates seem to indicate that Birds of Prey will gross $50 million dollars in its opening weekend domestically. Many people might see that as a sign that the film is going to fail because that number appears awfully low.
But assuming that this estimate holds true and that Birds of Prey doesn't surpass early projections, it's still on track to be a hit. The PG-13 rated Shazam! grossed around $56 million on its opening weekend, and it went on to earn the aforementioned $364.6 million and cost more to produce.
On top of that, it's highly likely the film will earn better than expected. Harley Quinn is an incredibly popular character, and superhero films have a history of surpassing expectations. For instance, early projections for Captain Marvel estimated the film would gross $100 million its opening weekend, domestically. That's an incredible haul, but the film did far better, grossing $153.4 million its opening weekend domestically.
Similarly, the R-rated Deadpool and Joker movies both surpassed expectations and became blockbuster hits, thanks partially to their smaller production budgets. While early projections might appear low for Birds of Prey, it's important to remember that the film can always surpass expectations. But, even without those expectations being surpassed, Birds of Prey already looks a lot like a surefire hit.
Directed by Cathy Yan from a script by Christina Hodson, Birds of Prey: And The Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn stars Margot Robbie, Jurnee Smollett-Bell, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Rosie Perez, Ewan McGregor, Ella Jay Basco, Steven Williams, Derek Wilson, Dana Lee, Francois Chau, Charlene Amoia, Chris Messina and Matthew Willig. The film arrives Feb. 7.