While there hasn't been a new Hunger Games movie in years, the franchise maintains its popularity as its themes continue to be relevant to the contemporary world. Many fans still like to revisit the world of Panem, and this may have been what inspired a fan theory that gained traction on Reddit recently. Reddit user, u/Burnnoticelover, speculated that in addition to state propaganda, the Hunger Games serve the purpose of assessing the capitol’s ability to handle an insurgency.
The first part of the theory speculates that the games are a way to decide which districts should be feared. President Snow can tell who provides military, combat and survival training from the tributes, and, as a result, Districts 1 and 2 are treated better because they do well so the capitol wants to keep them appeased.
This is plausible as the games have always been a way to pit the districts against each other. It would make sense to gauge which districts had the capabilities to start a rebellion, so they ensure winning districts get extra resources to keep the peace.
The part about Districts 1 and 2 also adds an interesting layer to Panem's history. In the book, it’s stated that the two districts view participating in the games as an honorable, heroic duty because the Capitol treats them well. It’s possible they were dominant when the games began, and the constant good treatment developed into a culture of capitol worship seen at the start of the series. This would support themes of the series as the two districts are capable of bringing down the Capitol, but they are too complacent to do so.
Another part of the theory is that the arena is used to evaluate how the fighters perform in different environments while also testing the Capitol’s own counter insurgency measures. This explains why the arena and environmental hazards change every year.
This is a clever idea, but in Catching Fire, Plutarch Heavensbee confirms the arenas are designed and planned years in advanced. This would make it difficult to layout a reasonable environment that’s close to where they think a rebellion is going to happen; however, the part about environmental hazards seems too plausible to not be true. Some traps and attacks from the Capitol in Mockingjay are similar to those in the games, so they could've used the games to test out their countermeasures.
The next part of the theory claims the reapings are used for a mostly random sampling, but they do provide extra food for those who put their name in the lottery more times. Giving extra rations allows the Capitol to see who’s desperate enough to join a rebellion, and allowing volunteers also lets them evaluate the “glory hounds” that would lead a militia.
This is the weakest part of this theory because two teenagers are not enough to evaluate an entire district. Not only is the sample size too small, a rebellion would likely be led by an adult with more experience and expertise. While the argument can be made a decent sample size can be derived from the 75 years the games have been around, data from more than a few years prior wouldn’t give a solid evaluation for present day. It would be like saying the Chicago Bulls must be a great team today, because Michael Jordan played for them in the 90s.
The part about volunteers seems to contradict the first part of the theory and what is already known about the world as well. Volunteers are common only in a couple of districts because of the aforementioned glory that comes with it. So why would they start a rebellion if they glorify the Capitol? If they wanted volunteers and random selections, why not expand the sample size so they could have both?
The people most likely to start a rebellion wouldn’t volunteer as they wouldn’t want to uphold the system. In Catching Fire, all the past tributes who are part of the rebellion are originally volunteers, but the returning tributes from Districts 1 and 2 are still in the game to win like before.
This leads to one of the biggest flaws in the theory in that past victors are together every year for the games. If President Snow decides these are the people most capable and likely to start a rebellion, why put them together on an annual basis and allow them to learn about the capitol?
While not every part of the theory holds up, it is fun to further explore the world and bring some interesting ideas to the table. With a prequel book, The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, set to be released in May, fans will get another chance to learn about the origins. We can expect more questions and theories about the world of Panem.