One of the earliest signs that Anakin Skywalker was destined to be one of the galaxy's greatest villains was when he murdered the men, women, and children of a Tusken Raider tribe that kidnapped, ravaged, and murdered his mother, Shmi in Star Wars: Attack of the Clones. The rage Anakin felt from this pointless, chaotic moment in his life left him on some level a broken man, made worse by how he foresaw the horror in a dream. This same ability of premonition would lead Anakin to take drastic measures when he foresaw Padme's demise, which led to the events of Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith.
In Revenge of the Sith, of course, it became clear that Palpatine manipulated circumstances to turn Anakin to the dark side. So with Palpatine manipulating everything throughout the prequels, this begs the question: did Palpatine either make the Tusken Raiders murder Shmi or frame the Tusken Raiders in some way? Let's analyze what one fan theory suggests, as well as its merits and level of possibility.
The Theory
The theory was started by Reddit user Steinrikur on r/FanTheories, where he claimed he believed Palpatine either framed the Tusken Raiders, or outright manipulated them to make sure this key moment in Anakin's descent occurred in precisely the way that would best benefit Palpatine. Steinrikur states in his theory, "Palpatine was playing Anakin like a fiddle the whole time, and this was a huge step in his journey towards the dark side. It is inconceivable that it was just a coincidence that his mother was killed in such a way by the Sand people. My theory is that he either staged the attack and delivered Shmi to the sand people to torture, or he bribed/tricked/persuaded them to attack the farm and kidnap the woman."
The theory also notes how the Empire previously tried to frame the various attacks on Tatooine on the Tusken Raiders in Star Wars: A New Hope. "The Lars farm was attacked twice. The first time it was Tusken radiers kidnapping Shmi. The second time it was storm troopers posing as Tusken radiers, killing Uncle Owen and Aunt Beru. Coincidence?"
Could This Be True?
The theory doesn't necessarily cite evidence from the film to support this, but there are implications that this could be true throughout Attack of the Clones and Revenge of the Sith. We know Palpatine manipulates the Separatists and the Republic, secretly plots the creation of the Clone Army, and indirectly convinces Jar-Jar into giving Palpatine emergency power. Manipulating Anakin in much the same way is very much in-line with what would happen.
Furthermore, after the events of Attack of the Clones, Palpatine tries to become a mentor to Anakin. He's already planning on making Anakin his apprentice long before he disposes of Dooku. While Anakin would later tell Palpatine about his attack on the Tusken Raiders, Palpatine very readily uses it as a point of manipulation against Anakin, to convince him to give into his violent urges once again. If Palpatine did manipulate circumstances surrounding Shmi, then it would stand to reason that he might have manipulated circumstances to create this point of leverage over Anakin. Therefore, if Palpatine were to either properly frame the Tusken Raiders for Shmi's kidnapping or go as far as to manipulate them, then maybe Palpatine was indeed behind everything.
But Let's Look At This Closer
However, some components simply do not add up. For one, the Empire at large underestimates and misunderstands Tusken Raider culture. As seen in The Mandalorian, they have an advanced form of communication. When the Mandalorian and Toro Calican ask for permission to cross the Dune Sea, they request to barter. If Palpatine bribed the Tusken Raiders to kidnap and murder Shmi, they would have requested a lot of technology or weaponry which they do not have when Anakin raids their camp.
Which leads to the other aspect of the theory suggesting the Tusken Raiders were framed. The Empire did try to frame the Tusken Raiders in A New Hope for the murder of both Luke's aunt and uncle, as well as the Jawas. However, both Luke and Obi-Wan saw through the trick in seconds. If Shmi's kidnapping was somehow framed on the Tusken Raiders, it would have been obvious.
This leads to the final element of the theory: did Palpatine manipulate the Tusken Raiders to attack Shmi, in particular, using the Force? It's certainly possible. It's confirmed in various points throughout the modern and Legends canon that Palpatine used the force to manipulate all elements of the world around him, from suppressing the Jedi's force abilities to helping his henchmen become more proficient at combat. So it is possible that Palpatine, in his foresight, encouraged the Tusken Raiders to seek out Shmi, kidnap her and kill her, only for Anakin to arrive just at that right moment to find Shmi dead and enact his revenge.
However, mind control only works on the weak minded. As mentioned before, Tusken Raiders have an advanced culture and are shrewd at bargaining. In Legends canon, Jedi have emerged from their ranks, such as Sharad Hett and A'Sharad Hett. The Tusken Raiders would not be so easy to mind control. This Star Wars theory is compelling, but it's also, like many real-life conspiracy theories, trying to explain why things fall apart without much evidence.