Darth Sidious, aka Emperor Palpatine, was the devious mind behind much of the chaos that consumed the Star Wars galaxy between The Phantom Menace and Rise of Skywalker. He engineered the final stages of a centuries-long Sith plan that saw the Republic crushed and the effective extinction of the Jedi Order. But the endgame all started with the failed occupation of Naboo, and what appeared to be the unplanned death of his apprentice Darth Maul.
The story began with the Trade Federation's illegal blockade of the planet Naboo. In response, the Jedi Order and the Republic sent Jedi Master Qui-Gon Jinn and his apprentice Obi-Wan Kenobi to deal with the problem. This set in motion a chain of events that would end with the death of Qui-Gon as well as the induction of Anakin Skywalker into the Jedi Order. But the Sith suffered losses, as well.
At that point in time, Darth Maul was under Darth Sidious's apprenticeship. Sidious sent Maul to make sure that the Trade Federation succeeded in their mission on Naboo. In the end, they didn't, and Maul was killed. The blockade fell. Nute Gunray, Viceroy of the Trade Federation and a key Sidious collaborator, was branded a criminal. For all intents and purposes, it appeared the Emperor's first gambit was a failure. But looks can be deceiving.
There was one thing that Naboo had over everything else in the galaxy, and that was Queen Padmé Amidala. Sidious sent Maul after her as she was a key part of making the blockade of Naboo into something more long term. More than that, the relationship between her and Anakin would play a huge role in turning him to the Dark Side. Without Padmé Amidala and her eventual death, there might never have been a Darth Vader.
While it's quite likely that Count Dooku was brought in by Sidious as a sacrificial lamb in Anakin's journey to the Dark Side, the same could be true of Darth Maul. Sidious was not known to be sloppy or capricious in his planning. It's entirely possible that the blockade around Naboo was nothing more than a gambit to bring Anakin and Padmé together. As such, Darth Maul was set up by his master from the beginning.
Given Palpatine's power and strong connection to the Force, it's possible that he could have foreseen enough of the future to plan accordingly. At the very least, the Dark Side of the Force might have shown him Darth Vader and what was required to bring his greatest apprentice into play. If that were true, Sidious sent Maul to Naboo knowing that he would be killed by Obi-Wan Kenobi, removing him from the battlefield permanently.
But Sidious also needed Maul to kill Qui-Gon so that the Jedi Order would feel pressured into training Anakin. Initially, they refused Qui-Gon's request to train Anakin given his age. Without the guilt of Qui-Gon's death weighing on them and Obi-Wan's continued nagging, they might never have allowed it. Again, the Jedi Council being arrogant jerks to Anakin was a big part of making him more receptive to Palpatine's subtle guidance.
That being said, if none of this was planned out and Maul's failure on Naboo wasn't part of the plan, then Palpatine left a lot of things to chance. A long series of coincidences, such as Anakin becoming a Jedi and even meeting Padmé at all, would need to have happened for it all to work out.
What no one, including Palpatine, expected was that Maul actually survived his encounter with Obi-Wan on Naboo. When he rose to power on Mandalore, Sidious sensed his presence and went to the planet to confront him. He was surprised to see his old apprentice trying to find a place in the universe beyond his machinations. Unfortunately for Maul, his delusions of grandeur remained just that. He was never anything more than a pawn in Palpatine's great game.