Star Wars has dived into the era of the New Republic, thanks to John Favreau and Dave Filoni's Star Wars: The Mandalorian and its upcoming spin-off series, Rangers of the New Republic and Ahsoka. All three projects are interconnected shows that center on a story sparked by Din Djarin's discovery of Grogu and the uprising of a new order of the Empire.
However, all signs indicate that The Mandalorian and its spin-offs will be outlining the rise of the First Order, with the factions led by Grand Moff Gideon and Grand Admiral Thrawn laying the groundwork for Snoke, the Sith Eternal and the return of Palpatine.
THE STAR WARS TIMELINE
When considering this idea, the evidence points to the idea that The Mandalorian is filling in a necessary story that outlined the rise of the First Order. The Galactic Civil War ended with the Battle of Jakku, resulting in the fall of the Galactic Empire in 5 ABY. Four years later, Star Wars: The Mandalorian picks up.
According to the novel Star Wars: Bloodline, the First Order forms before 21 ABY. It materialized in the Unknown Regions of the Galaxy, but only after Snoke collected several older loyalists to the Empire and brought them to the Unknown Regions. Once they arrived, the First Order took claim of territories claimed by the Empire, allied by the Centrists -- planets without particular allegiance either way. As seen in The Mandalorian, many planets are either apathetic toward the New Republic or economically challenged as a result of the change of power.
The New Republic materializes after the Galactic Civil War, only to almost collapse immediately after Starkiller Base eradicates its capital city on Chandrila. So far, The Mandalorian has introduced how the Empire survived the Galactic Civil War, how the New Republic loosely governs the planets under its authority and how two separate leaders -- Grand Admiral Thrawn and Grand Moff Gideon -- appear to have claimed leadership over territory formerly claimed by the Empire.
RANGERS OF THE NEW REPUBLIC
While there are many possibilities for Star Wars: Rangers of the New Republic, one potential avenue is that it will outline how the Empire restructured itself during the era of the New Republic. While the New Republic did establish a new form of order, it ultimately was ill-equipped to deal with the First Order, resulting in a separate faction, the Resistance, materializing separately from the New Republic.
Star Wars: Rangers of the New Republic needs to develop the New Republic as an entity, with its pitfalls and shortcomings, in order to show why it could do nothing in the face of the First Order and why so many Centrists chose to either align with the remnants of the Empire.
THE RISE OF SNOKE
The Mandalorian's main story has focused on Grand Moff Gideon's need for Grogu's blood. It appears to be that Gideon's faction is performing genetic experiments using Grogu's blood. While it is possible that Doctor Pershing, the scientist under Gideon's command, is using the blood to create the Dark Troopers we see kidnap Grogu, it's far more likely that fans are seeing the experiments that would give way to both the creation of Snoke and the resurrection of Palpatine.
Snoke's origins are as of yet shrouded in mystery. Palpatine was involved in Snoke's creation and that there are laboratories on Exegol that gave birth to the Force user, but it's highly likely that these experiments are the early stages of his birth. For this reason, it seems likely that Grand Moff Gideon might be, much like General Pryde from The Rise of Skywalker, a direct loyalist to Palpatine and a member of the Sith Eternal cult. That would explain his possession of the Dark Saber, his knowledge of the Force and other details surrounding his person.
If The Mandalorian shows the birth of Snoke, it might also outline the first confrontation between Snoke and Luke Skywalker, which took place at some point before 28 ABY. However, Snoke's rise to power is only part of the story. After all, while Snoke fled to the Unkown Regions, he and his fleet of Imperial Loyalists used information given to them by Grand Admiral Thrawn, as was revealed in Star Wars Aftermath: Empire's End.
AHSOKA'S JOURNEY
Grand Admiral Thrawn is an instrumental figure in the formation of the First Order. If the upcoming Ahsoka series will center on the former Jedi's quest to find Thrawn, that means that, inevitably, she will come into conflict with him and the early colonies of the First Order. It could be argued that Ahsoka's actions will result in some of the biggest insights into the origins of the First Order, especially if Thrawn is in charge of the early operations following the Empire's collapse.
It remains unclear how Palpatine's Final Order had so many Star Destroyers, but it's possible that Thrawn and Elsbeth might have been instrumental in the armada's creation. If that's the case, Ahsoka's journey could take her straight to Exegol, where she could uncover the evil that rears its head in The Rise of Skywalker.