Despite a record-breaking performance in Thursday previews, Solo: A Star Wars Story stumbled in its debut, earning a projected $103 million domestically over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, and another $65 million overseas. That's the lowest opening for a Star Wars film since Disney revived the franchise in 2015 with The Force Awakens, which will undoubtedly lead to soul-searching and finger-point among executives who envision a seemingly endless expansion that includes another trilogy, a separate series of films, a live-action television series, and potentially a Boba Fett spinoff.

Suddenly, a brand that once seemed impervious to harm -- it weathered the Star Wars Holiday Special, The Ewok Adventure and three divisive prequels, after all -- displays signs of vulnerability. While we can, and probably should, ponder the state of an industry in which a $168 million global opening is considered a failure, we have to keep in mind that, with a production budget north of $250 million, Solo is the most expensive Star Wars film to date. We probably shouldn't lose much sleep over the immediate effects to the bottom line of Disney, an international entertainment conglomerate, but we can't help but wonder about the longer-term ramifications for the franchise.

So, what went wrong with Solo: A Star Wars Story? Although there's probably a lot of blame to go around, here are some potential factors:

Star Wars Fatigue

star wars fatigue

Three years separated each film in the beloved original trilogy, from 1977's A New Hope to 1983's Return of the Jedi, and the same pace was established 16 years later, when George Lucas returned to launch the far more divisive prequels. But following its purchase of Lucasfilm in 2012 for a whopping $4.05 billion, Disney took a far more aggressive approach to the franchise, with plans to release a new Star Wars film each year, beginning in 2015 with the debut of a new trilogy, for ... well, the foreseeable future. Fans, and Disney shareholders, cheered, but there lingered a seemingly unanswerable question: Can there ever be too much Star Wars?

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In the buildup to the release in December 2015 of J.J. Abrams' The Force Awakens, the answer appeared to be a resounding no. The sales of new toys and other merchandise skyrocketed, and the film shattered one box-office record after another on its way to earning a franchise-best $2.068 worldwide. It was followed a year later by Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, the first in a series of "anthology films" sandwiched between chapters of the new trilogy. It too was a hit, grossing $1.056 billion, and seemingly confirming an appetite not only for more Star Wars, but for more movies outside the framework of the Skywalker saga.

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However, symptoms of lethargy emerged even before the arrival in December of The Last Jedi, the Rian Johnson sequel that was praised by critics yet divided audiences: Toy sales began to suffer a decline, even as Star Wars maintained its hold on the industry. Although that was attributed to numerous factors -- a softening market, an overall drop in movie attendance, the glut of Star Wars collectibles in 2015 -- it's difficult not to wonder now whether that was the proverbial canary in the coal mine. If a sense of fatigue was setting in among the franchise faithful, it was undoubtedly only exacerbated by the release of Solo five months after The Last Jedi. Fans hadn't even had time to resolve their disputes about the depiction of Luke Skywalker or the unceremonious exit of Admiral Ackbar.

Solo's Own Troubles (Production & Perception)

solo han chewbacca

Many of the franchise faithful had long desired to witness the start of the decades-long friendship between Han Solo and Chewbacca, and the legendary game of chance in which Lando Calrissian lost the Millennium Falcon, moments previously related only in the ancillary Expanded Universe/Legends materials. But as exciting as the prospect was of seeing those events finally play out in live-action, for most fans, Han Solo is Harrison Ford, even at age 75; no youthful imitators will do.

Therefore, Solo entered development at a seemingly insurmountable disadvantage when it came to audience expectations. Its Star Wars Story predecessor, 2016's Rogue One, was faced only with depicting events previously referenced in the franchise -- the theft of the Death Star plans by Rebel spies -- while Solo had to try to recreate, or recapture, iconic characters immortalized by iconic actors. It was a Sisyphean task whose very notion was met with a blend of disinterest and disdain; some corners of Star Wars fandom openly rooted for Solo to fail.

RELATED: Early Solo Backlash Was Understandable, But Unwarranted

Last summer it certainly looked as if they would get their wish, with the abrupt firing of original directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller -- "creative differences," officially -- followed by rumors of on-set turmoil, including questions about the acting abilities of leading man Alden Ehrenreich, and then the announcement that Ron Howard would step behind the camera. The stewardship of the Oscar-nominated filmmaker was undoubtedly meant to instill confidence, but it was accompanied by reports of extensive reshoots (70 percent, officially, enough to earn Howard sole director credit).

The adage, frequently employed in politics, that perception is reality also applies to big-budget Hollywood productions. It doesn't require much effort for the predominant view of an impending release to slip from "unnecessary" to "failure." Although Solo's opening-weekend prospects brightened in early May, when it was projected to outperform the domestic debut of Rogue One, by the middle of the month lukewarm early reviews ensured the film's place on the can-miss list -- something previously unthinkable for the blockbuster franchise.

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Solo's Marketing Campaign

A growing feeling of unease about Solo's behind-the-scenes turmoil was undoubtedly compounded by marketing decisions made by Disney and Lucasfilm. The arrival of The Last Jedi on Dec. 15 wasn't accompanied by the teaser trailer for Solo, as many fans expected, despite only 23 weeks separating the release of the two films. Then January passed without a glimpse of the spinoff, only fueling fevered online speculation the disappointed studios intended to "bury" the film.

RELATED: Solo Finally Addresses One of the Most Troubling Aspects of Star Wars

Although that theory never made much sense -- why wouldn't Disney pull a movie it expected to flop from prime Memorial Day weekend release? -- Solo's teaser, which finally debuted in early February, didn't exactly win over the doubting tauntauns among Star Wars fandom. The first full-length trailer, widely regarded as an improvement, swept in two months later. However, in retrospect, one has to wonder whether, by that point, the view that Solo would be underwhelming, to put it it mildly, had already baked into the cake.

Of course, once Disney opened the floodgates, the marketing for Solo rapidly became inescapable. There was no slow build-up, as we came to expect from previous Star Wars campaigns, likely because of the narrow window between The Last Jedi and Solo. Where only months earlier there was a drought, audiences were now greeted by a tsunami.

Blockbuster Burnout

blockbuster burnout

While the box-office performances this year of Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 would seem to throw cold water on the notion of "superhero fatigue," we can't help but wonder whether there might be something to blockbuster fatigue. That's not to suggest audiences don't like big-budget movie spectacles -- they do, quite obviously -- but rather that they might not enjoy them as much in such rapid succession.

RELATED: Which Legends Elements Star Wars Reintroduces Into Star Wars Canon

The global rollout for Infinity War began on April 27 (moved from May 5), followed by the release of Deadpool 2 on May 10 and, finally, with Solo on May 25; that's three blockbuster-size movies in the span of a month, all vying for a similar audience, with Jurassic World: Fallen: Kingdom lurking just ahead, in the shadows of June. But Infinity War is closing in on $2 billion worldwide, and the R-rated Deadpool sequel on a respectable $500 million, while Solo is struggling out of the gate.

Perhaps it's not blockbuster fatigue audiences are experiencing, but rather a temporary exhaustion. Factored into all of those other hurdles facing Solo is an increasingly crowded calendar in which Memorial Day weekend is no longer the start of summer movie season but the end of the first quarter. And with so many big-budget popcorn features wedged into one month, a trip to the cinema begins to feel like a chore instead of an escape. In that environment, then, it's no wonder a significant portion of moviegoers who made The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi and Rogue One certifiable hits opted to sit out a franchise installment that, for once, didn't feel like a must-see.


In theaters now, director Ron Howard’s Solo: A Star Wars Story stars Alden Ehrenreich as Han Solo, Donald Glover as Lando Calrissian, Emilia Clarke as Qi’ra, and Joonas Suotamo as Chewbacca. They’re joined by Thandie Newton as Val, Phoebe Waller-Bridge L3-37, Paul Bettany as Dryden Vos, and Woody Harrelson as Tobias Beckett.