Coming off the absolute failure of the Wii U, the Nintendo Switch was in a precarious position. Either the system would succeed and pull Nintendo out of its rut, or it would fail, driving Nintendo deeper into an already niche position. From the initial reveal trailer, the Switch's fortunes seemed promising. This translated into immediate success at launch, a hot streak that only burned hotter as the years progressed.
Almost no one was bullish enough to predict how lucrative the Switch has become, but now, it's clear from the most recent sales data that Nintendo is furthering this meteoric trajectory. Now, the question is how Nintendo can continue this momentum into 2021 and beyond.
There is a lot of momentum here for Nintendo to maintain. The Switch has officially outsold the Nintendo 3DS, and it sits just below 80 million units sold. That's a stunning number that puts the Switch in the upper echelon of Nintendo systems. This is a figure that Nintendo achieved largely on the back of wildfire exclusives that continue to sell more and more. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has retained its number one position with a staggering 33 million copies sold. Animal Crossing: New Horizons has crossed the 30 million threshold as well, an achievement even more astounding considering that the game hasn't even been on the market for a full year.
Animal Crossing's sales are especially significant because that game largely propelled Nintendo's 2020 overall. Without New Horizons, it's unlikely that the growth of the Switch would be as extreme. The console would've always done well in 2020, as COVID-19 drove gaming as a whole to remarkable highs. However, the strength of Animal Crossing on top of the Switch's intrinsic appeal was an incredible combination.
Considering that the top ten best-selling games on Switch (as with most Nintendo systems) are all exclusives, having a new killer app to drive console sales is incredibly important. Exclusives push Nintendo hardware, and few exclusives are bigger than Animal Crossing: New Horizons.
Considering how empty Nintendo's 2021 schedule is at the moment, it's unclear what software Nintendo will be pushing the hardest this year. However, the early portion of the year has a strong two title gambit that could prove to be incredibly lucrative. The one-two punch of Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury in February followed by Monster Hunter Rise in March could, and probably will, generate a lot of revenue.
Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury in particular could be huge. Generally, Wii U ports on Switch result in relatively modest returns. Most ports will outperform their Wii U counterparts by orders of magnitude, but pale in comparison to the success of truly original Switch titles. However, Mario ports have been exceptions. Two of the top ten best-selling Switch games are Mario Wii U ports: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe. Mario Kart more than tripled its Wii U performance, and New Super Mario Bros. just about doubled its Wii U performance.
This trend sets Super Mario 3D World up for explosive success, as it was already the second-best selling Wii U title. Considering both the hype for Bowser's Fury and the sheer volume of players experiencing 3D World as a new game, it wouldn't be surprising to see the title settle into the best-sellers list.
Monster Hunter Rise could perform on par with Mario too, considering that Monster Hunter World is the best-selling title in Capcom's history. Of course, the audience for PlayStation and Xbox is different than the audience for Nintendo Switch, but Monster Hunter historically performed well on 3DS. Rise could certainly capitalize on World's success and the gigantic Switch install base.
Clearly, Nintendo realizes how strong the appeal of this duo is. In a surprising move, both titles will receive special edition Switch models only a month apart. While initially strange (and likely signaling that a Switch Pro is a ways off) these editions are explicit signs that Nintendo is going all-in on these games.
Of course, Nintendo also tends to backload its year, saving the biggest titles for the holidays. Considering that Breath of the Wild's sequel is somewhere in the ether and 2021 is Zelda's 35th anniversary, dropping that game during the holiday months would be a strong option. The timing feels right, and no other game could set the Nintendo community ablaze like Breath of the Wild 2. The likelihood of that actually releasing in 2021 is unclear, but Nintendo will want something potent to bookend 2021. Its first chapter seems incredibly strong, so hopefully the conclusion is just as impactful.