Initial estimates indicated that Mulan had grossed $261 million through its Disney+ Premier Access release. However, new information suggests those projections may have been seriously off."The data we shared with Yahoo represents the share of the Disney+ audience that streamed Mulan during the first 12 days of September 2/," 7Park Data's Brian Lichtenberger tweeted while breaking down Mulan's PVOD business. Notably, 7Park Data is the company that supplied the initial data suggesting Mulan grossed $261 million.
In subsequent tweets, Lichtenberger relayed that "The size of the audience during the first 12 days of September does not equate to the entire size of the Disney+ US subscriber base. Notably, this period covers Labor Day and BTS causing the the relative audience size to be smaller than non-holiday periods 3/" Lichtenberger also provided a visual aid for his clarifications in a tweet reading, "To create a revenue estimate, it's therefore important to normalize audience size. To demonstrate how, I ran share in our data over a longer period of time. (You can dynamically do this in our dashboard.) The chart below shows audience share on Disney+ for all of Q3:"
Finally, Lichtenberger stated that "We can now apply this to the Disney+ sub base in the US to arrive at a revenue estimate. Audience share of 10.32% x $30 per premium stream implies revenue as follows (depending on the size of the US installed base): 20m US subs: $62m 25m US subs: $77m 30m US subs: 93m" while ending the thread with a clarification that "Lastly, this is my "back of the envelope" estimate and excludes any revenue generated from new subs added by Mulan."
Acclaimed filmmaker Niki Caro brings the epic tale of China’s legendary warrior to life in Disney’s "Mulan," in which a fearless young woman risks everything out of love for her family and her country to become one of the greatest warriors China has ever known. When the Emperor of China issues a decree that one man per family must serve in the Imperial Army to defend the country from Northern invaders, Hua Mulan, the eldest daughter of an honored warrior, steps in to take the place of her ailing father. Masquerading as a man, Hua Jun, she is tested every step of the way and must harness her inner-strength and embrace her true potential. It is an epic journey that will transform her into an honored warrior and earn her the respect of a grateful nation…and a proud father.
Directed by Niki Caro, Mulan stars Yifei Liu as Mulan, Donnie Yen as Commander Tung, Jason Scott Lee as Böri Khan and Yoson An as Chen Honghui, with Gong Li as Xianniang and Jet Li as the Emperor. The film is available now through Premier Access on Disney+.