Following a disappointing box office performance from Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, early projections predict that its follow-up, The Secrets of Dumbledore, will have even smaller box office returns.
A box office forecast from Box Office Pro projected that Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore will gross a domestic total between $100 million and $140 million. The forecast cited Harry Potter's active fanbase, as well as the two trailers' combined 31 million YouTube views as pros for the film's box office. However, the film's April release window was listed as a con, with audiences expected to gravitate towards Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness in May, followed by Sonic the Hedgehog 2 in June. Box Office Pro also suggested that some fans may not be inclined to see future Fantastic Beasts entries following the controversy surrounding transphobic comments made by the film's co-screenwriter and Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling.
The forecast also suggested that the third Fantastic Beasts film would follow the trend of its predecessors, particularly the second entry The Crimes of Grindelwald, which is currently the lowest-grossing film in the Wizarding World franchise. Moreover, The Crimes of Grindelwald is the only film in the franchise to gross less than $200 million domestically with a total of about $160 million. Box Office Pro projected an opening weekend domestic total of $40 million to $55 million for The Secrets of Dumbledore, less than Grindelwald's $62 million.
Both the Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts franchises have been subject to scrutiny due to creator Rowling's stance on transgender rights and continued anti-trans comments. Several Harry Potter stars, such as Daniel Radcliffe, Emma Watson and Eddie Redmayne, spoke out against Rowling's transphobia, while some came to her defense, including Hagrid actor Robbie Coltrane and Lucius Malfoy actor Jason Isaacs. Some fans even speculated that Rowling was absent from HBO Max's Harry Potter 20th Anniversary: Return to Hogwarts reunion special due to the controversy, but sources stated that she had been invited.
Another controversy surrounding The Secrets of Dumbledore is the film's recasting of villain Grindelwald. Mads Mikkelsen replaced actor Johnny Depp, who was asked by Warner Bros. to step down from the role after losing a libel suit against UK publication, The Sun, which made claims that Depp abused ex-wife and Aquaman star, Amber Heard. It was recently reported that a defamation lawsuit between Heard and Depp may soon go to trial with several celebrity witnesses lined up, such as Paul Bettany, James Franco and Elon Musk.
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore is set for release on April 15, 2022.
Source: Box Office Pro