According to a study from the UBS Evidence Lab, the first round of intended subscribers to Disney's upcoming streaming service Disney+ will exceed the company's expectations.
UBS analyst John Hodulik says the UBS Evidence Lab Media Consumption survey, which was conducted in April and May of 2019, found that 43% of the 1,000 respondents surveyed intend to become subscribers of Disney+. Specifically, 24% said they’re “extremely likely” to subscribe and 19% said they’re “somewhat likely.”
UBS also states this rate is above Disney's intended projection of 20 to 30 million subscriptions in the U.S. by the year 2024, or 20% to 30% of U.S. households. UBS also found that the rate for intended subscriptions by age was higher with a younger audience (ages 18 - 34).
“We view this as a strong result, considering Disney+ will not launch until November and marketing for the service has yet to hit critical mass,” Hodulik wrote.
While Disney+ was announced to be debuting later this year, the company unveiled what kind of content to expect from the service at the D23 Expo event in Anaheim last weekend. The reveals undoubtedly added to the excitement, and that's before Disney's marketing plan kicks into full gear towards the November 12 launch date.
On a global scale, Disney predicts to garner 60 to 90 million subscribers by 2024. With its persuasive price point and exclusive content from popular franchises, Disney+ is looking to be a fierce competitor in the TV streaming service experience. On the horizon, companies like NBCUniversal, WarnerMedia, and Apple plan on launching their own streaming platforms.
While Netflix has had an immense subscription count for some time, it's current 152 million may dwindle a bit, as 57% of new Disney+ consumers say they are likely to drop another streaming service. While Pay-TV was noted to be the service most likely to be cut at 37%, 33% said they would cut other video services.
“This would result in only a handful of winners in the OTT video space (including those with must have content/originals) and an even larger number of losers over time," Hodulik said. "We view Disney as well positioned to be one of the winners given Hulu's current scale (28 million subscribers and growing rapidly) and the differentiated content offering of Disney+."
Disney+ will be available November 12 in the US, Canada and the Netherlands and on November 19 in Australia and New Zealand. The streaming service will feature content from Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, and National Geographic at launch at the price of $7 per month or $70 for the year excluding bundles and discounts. Those with Roku, Apple and Android devices as well as PlayStation 4 and Xbox One will be able to download the Disney+ app and stream up to four devices at once with 4k quality resolution.