A recent rumor posted by We Got This Covered indicated that Disney may be developing a live-action Dragon Ball film with an all-Asian cast. While this went viral, they offered no proof to back up their claims, citing an anonymous source. So, while the possibility is exciting, it's just a rumor, as there is no tangible evidence Disney will be making a film based on the property.
However, the rumor itself sparked the question: could Disney make a Dragon Ball film? By all accounts, it can. After buying Fox, Disney now owns the film rights to Dragon Ball, as well as the theatrical distribution rights to any anime film Toei puts out, as seen with Dragon Ball Super: Broly. But just because Disney can do it, doesn't mean it will. In fact, Disney would have little to no incentive to develop a Dragon Ball movie in the near future, especially considering the financial risks they'd face in doing so.
The Appeal of a Disney Dragon Ball Film
Obviously, the combination of Disney and Dragon Ball is a match made in heaven. Disney has proven it can produce tons of profitable, high-budget films, bringing imaginative worlds to vivid reality. Disney has done wonders with Star Wars and Marvel, so if any studio could bring Goku and friends to life, it's the Mouse House.
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Furthermore, Disney has recently been trying to appeal to a broader international market. It's no secret that many of its films have proven insanely profitable in China and the Asian market. If Disney wanted to draw in an international audience, what better way than to make a Dragon Ball film, one of the most beloved Japanese properties ever produced?
Plus, Disney in the past has tried making anime adaptations, such as with their attempted Sailor Moon adaptation from the 90s. So maybe they'd want to revisit this potential mine of properties?
The History of Dragon Ball on Film
Dragon Ball has appeared on the big screen multiple times over the years, sometimes in animated films or live-action films -- and yes, films, as in there have been multiple live-action Dragon Ball films. While the property is hotter than ever, the animated films have cost far less than their live-action counterparts and received far more money in return.
Dragon Ball, throughout its four series, has had twenty animated films released. Of these twenty, five (Dragon Ball Z: Broly - The Legendary Super Saiyan, Dragon Ball Z: Fusion Reborn, Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods, Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection 'F', and Dragon Ball Super: Broly) have received American theatrical releases, while the rest have gone straight to video. 20th Century Fox has distributed the films in theaters, to surprising success. While the first two films brought in less than a million each in their limited two-day runs, the latter three films proved to be among the most financially successful anime films ever released in American theaters. Battle of Gods brought in world-wide $51.2 million dollars, Resurrection 'F' brought in $64.8 million, while Broly brought in a staggering $124.5 million worldwide.
By comparison, Dragonball Evolution, the live-action film produced by 20th Century Fox in 2009, grossed a total of $55.7 million worldwide, with $9.4 million being the domestic gross. Of course, Evolution isn't the only live-action Dragon Ball film. Two others, the Korean Dragon Ball: Ssawora Son Goku, Igyeora Son Goku (1990) and Chinese Dragon Ball: The Magic Begins (1991) are both adaptations of early Dragon Ball stories. Unfortunately, though, there is no box office information on them.
The failure of Dragonball Evolution can be chalked up to the film just being bad. Dragon Ball fans often dismiss the film as a travesty. It just wasn't very good. But Dragonball Evolution exists as part of a larger meta-narrative surrounding anime adaptations: they just aren't profitable.
Distributing Anime is More Profitable Than Adapting It
In these cases, obviously, the animated films proved more of a profit for the distributors, as they'd only have to pay for putting the film in theaters while receiving a good cut of the money for their troubles. Disney has earned money through distributing other films before, such as when it distributed Glass internationally earlier this year. So Disney has already taken an interest in distributing films it doesn't produce.
Anime films require far less of a budget, with most costing remarkably little. Distributors wouldn't earn the full profit, but they'd receive a profitable cut for their work. On the other hand, anime films tend to under-perform, which makes them a bigger risk for studios considering that they'd be paying both the production and distribution costs. Consider 20th Century Fox's last anime film, Alita: Battle Angel. The film just barely turned a profit for Fox, bringing in $404.9 million against a $170 million budget, putting the possibility of a sequel in limbo. Before that we had Ghost in the Shell, earning $169.8 million against a $110 million budget, and Speed Racer, earning $93.9 million against a $120 million budget. Big-budget anime adaptations seldom turn a profit. While Japan has had more success (with many adaptations being released on Netflix), Disney can look to the past and see anime adaptations aren't a profitable industry.
The majority of these films' profits have come from the Asian market, who Disney will be advertising to with the upcoming Marvel film Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, which has a far higher chance of success than, say, an anime adaptation.
There are Other Fox Properties
Disney needs to prioritize how it utilizes its new Fox properties. Disney owns the rights to Deadpool, the X-Men, Fantastic Four, Home Alone, Alien, Predator, and several other franchises now -- all of which have proven more financially successful than Dragon Ball. Disney can't just exploit all those properties for profit -- at least, not at once. Disney and Fox can only release so many films at once, so while it might be tempting to kick-start a new franchise in Dragon Ball, it might prove safer to start small.
It's possible Disney might develop something for Dragon Ball down the road now that it owns the film rights. However, a live-action film simply isn't feasible for now. Disney would stand to earn more by letting Toei Animation create more films and by focusing its attention on other genre films.
We are in the position now where Disney has the ability -- and even incentive with the international market -- to produce a Dragon Ball film. However, that incentive probably isn't big enough for it to produce a film that might prove too big a financial risk. Then again, the company has taken huge risks before. No one would've suspected that Captain Marvel would be as big a hit as it was, and, in many respects, visually, it strongly resembled what a Dragon Ball film might be, complete with golden auras, energy blasts, alien ships being torn through by fists alone, etc.
Disney can make a great Dragon Ball film. It just probably won't.