Netflix's The Power of the Dog is, according to Gold Derby, the current frontrunner for Best Picture at the 2022 Oscars, not to mention several other awards down the line. But the leader in streaming has been in this position before. Last year, Netflix had Mank. The year before, it had The Irishman. And the year before that, it had Roma. It's practically become a tradition for a Netflix movie made by a lauded auteur to be deemed the favorite only to lose most if not all of its nominations unceremoniously. Could Jane Campion's neo-western finally break Netflix's unhappy streak? There are reasons to think so, but The Power of the Dog isn't a sure thing.
The reviews for The Power of the Dog have been at least as strong if not slightly stronger than they were for those other films. Critics had plenty of respect for Roma, The Irishman and Mank, but they seem to have more passion for Campion's work. It's too soon to say if Netflix audiences will share that passion. All three of its prior efforts were generally less well-liked by home viewers than they were by Academy members, but if The Power of the Dog does well in terms of Netflix viewership, it'll help its chances.
Netflix's prior efforts each received 10 or 11 nominations. In the end, Roma won three, Mank won two and The Irishman got shut out. The Power of the Dog is on track to garner a similarly high number of nominations, but it stands a better chance to win in many of those categories. Campion could become the first woman to be nominated twice for Best Director; she was previously recognized for 1993's The Piano. That was 28 years ago, and there seems to be a sentiment in Hollywood that now is the time to properly honor this revered and singular voice in cinema. In the past, Netflix has given the green light and big budgets to directors like Martin Scorsese, who had won Best Picture before with The Departed, and to men like Alfonso Cuarón and David Fincher, who were coming off of big box office hits like Gravity and Gone Girl. Campion is more of a niche filmmaker who's never really gotten her due, and The Power of the Dog might be the right movie by the right filmmaker at the right time.
The film has also drawn praise for its cinematography, score, editing and Campion's adapted screenplay. But what truly sets The Power of the Dog apart is its undeniably strong performances. No actors from Netflix's prior frontrunners took home trophies (each received two acting nominations). Benedict Cumberbatch as the film's anti-hero, Phil Burbank, is almost assured a nomination. He has tough competition, however, from Will Smith in King Richard. Kirsten Dunst as anguished housewife Rose and Kodi Smit-McPhee as her bookish, effeminate son Peter both have a legitimate shot at winning their categories. Acting wins can boost a Best Picture contender's odds.
The Power of the Dog will also likely benefit from the ranked-choice voting that's used to decide the Best Picture winner. Some critics and Oscar voters were either lukewarm or sour on Mank and The Irishman especially. The Power of the Dog has gotten very little negative feedback thus far, which means if it doesn't occupy voters' top spot, it might still rank second or third on a lot of ballots. In a year without a clear runaway critical or commercial hit to challenge it, that might be good enough.
Ironically, the film's most meaningful challenge might come from the movie that prevailed at last year's Oscars. Nomadland was another neo-western written and directed by a woman. Though its story is completely different and it's set in the present day, it's still aesthetically similar to The Power of the Dog in that it is slow-burning and features vista after vista of beautiful, desolate landscapes. This isn't a reason to deny Campion Oscars, but some voters might make choices with variety of genre in mind.
Despite its emotional depth and artistic achievement, The Power of the Dog is, like its source material, not exactly a feel-good story. From COVID to political strife, the world has felt like it's been in a crisis and a funk, and come Oscar time, voters may feel like celebrating something more fun or uplifting. This year's seen its fair share of important downers: Mass, The Humans, even Dune to an extent, and The Power of the Dog seems to have bested them in most experts' estimation. But, the serious but more upbeat Belfast is running a close second. Steven Spielberg's West Side Story and Paul Thomas Anderson's breezy, nostalgic Licorice Pizza are premiering soon, not to mention Netflix's own star-studded Adam McKay comedy Don't Look Up. If voters are looking for crowd-pleasers, they won't be hard to find this December. It'd be a real twist ending if Netflix winds up finally taking home the big prize for a comedy about the end of the world.
The Power of the Dog is now streaming on Netflix.