UPDATE: Mulan has since been removed from Disney's release schedule. The original article as it appeared when it was first published appears below.
Coronavirus has overtaken the news cycle, including entertainment news. While the health impacts of COVID-19 are undoubtedly of more consequence to the general public, the virus is also having a noticeable impact on the film industry's bottom line — one that could negatively affect female-led films like Mulan and Black Widow at a time when the box office of such films is especially important.
The virus has reached American shores, and cases have been diagnosed in at least 44 states. Medical professionals have warned that things are likely to get worse before they get better, and the public is bracing for impact. College classes have moved online, store shelves are empty of essentials, public gathering like sporting events are being canceled, and people are staying home and relying on their streaming services instead of going to the movie theater.
Just as the public is struggling to know how to respond to the virus, the entertainment industry is struggling to forge a path forward too. Some of the changes the industry has made have come from the top down, out of an abundance of caution. SXSW organizers canceled the popular Austin, Texas, film festival after fears of the virus prompted heavy hitters like Netflix and Amazon to drop out. Some changes have also been made to movie release schedules in response to dwindling audiences, especially when it comes to international moviegoers. MGM moved the premiere of the latest installment in the James Bond franchise, No Time to Die, from April to November. That film had been heavily advertised overseas as Bond films always rely on strong international performances, and with restrictive quarantines in places like China and Italy, the producers did what they thought they had to do to avoid huge losses.
Disney, which relies on international box office dollars as well, has (for now) held firm to its release schedule. Mulan, the live-action, non-musical version of its 1998 animated hit, will still premiere March 27. The updated tale of a woman who poses as a man so she can take her father's place in the military was a financial risk for Disney even before the onset of coronavirus. It's much more of a war story than the Mouse House usually makes, and its PG-13 rating was already potentially going to cut a slice into its audience. That the film (made on a budget of about $200 million) takes place in China and features a nearly all-Asian cast should have bolstered the film's success in that market. Instead, with 70,000 of China's movie theaters unexpectedly closed, Mulan will have to work hard to recoup its costs.
So far, the American government hasn't given much indication that it will issue mandatory quarantines and business closures in quite the same way as has been done in China or parts of Europe, but it has begun to urge the public to take the threat more seriously. New travel restrictions and economic relief policies are being put in place, and such measures will likely convince Americans to behave accordingly. If the shortages of Purell and Lysol are any indication, it's probable that more potential American moviegoers will err on the side of caution and avoid the risk of the crowded public theater than Disney would like to think. The lackluster reception to Onward, which recorded the lowest Pixar opening in the last five years just a couple weeks prior to Mulan's premiere date, might be the first sign.
Though the movies of the Marvel Cinematic Universe have also been a reliable source of income for Disney in China, Marvel really needs Black Widow to do well here at home, to keep that tallest of tent poles aloft. The Scarlett Johansson-led spy thriller had a lot riding on it before we'd even heard of coronavirus. A standalone Natasha Romanoff movie had been asked for by fans for nearly a decade, and Marvel took heat for not giving its most-prominent female superhero top billing.
The hugely successful Captain Marvel put to rest -- at least temporarily -- any doubts that audiences would turn up for a superhero movie headlined by a woman. Then Birds of Prey, starring the very famous and recently Oscar-nominated Margot Robbie, did just okay at the box office -- and that was without panic about what is now a pandemic. Not to mention, we've been in an Marvel drought for nearly a year, and Black Widow kicks off Phase 4 of the MCU, a slate of films that features a much more diverse crop of heroes. Should Black Widow significantly underperform, it could impact Marvel's plans for its future movies.
The thing is, Black Widow is almost certain to come in below pre-COVID-19 box office projections both domestically and internationally, especially if the situation gets worse by its May 1st release date. That could make Black Widow one of the only recent MCU films to fail to draw adoring crowds its opening weekend.
If Mulan and Black Widow become casualties of the escalating health crisis, it might not matter that coronavirus was, in part, the cause. Movies starring women, especially action movies like these, have to do everything -- as they say -- backwards and in heels to begin with. They have to fight to get made, and they (unfairly) bear the burden of proving their undeniable success so that movies starring women continue to get made in the future.
But there's a glimmer of hope, and in the most ironic of places. Cinema has been in a battle with streaming since Netflix reached critical mass and started producing its own must-see movie titles. Now, Disney has its own streaming service, Disney+. We might not know what to make of coronavirus, or how far reaching and lasting its impact will be, but if we're all stuck at home, Disney still has a way to deliver its content to us. Maybe that's part of what's behind the decision to keep Mulan and Black Widow on schedule.
Directed by Niki Caro, Disney's Mulan stars Yifei Liu as Mulan, Donnie Yen as Commander Tung, Jason Scott Lee as Böri Khan, and Yoson An as Chen Honghui, with Gong Li as Xianniang and Jet Li as the Emperor. The film opens March 27.
Directed by Cate Shortland, Black Widow stars Scarlett Johansson as Natasha Romanoff/Black Widow, Florence Pugh as Yelena Belova, David Harbour as Alexei Shostakov/Red Guardian, O-T Fagbenle as Rick Mason and Rachel Weisz as Melina. The film opens in theaters May 1.