Carol Danvers flew into theaters everywhere this past weekend, as Marvel Studios' Captain Marvel finally hit the big screen. And to the surprise of no one -- well, with minor exceptions, of course -- the film is an immediate hit. While it fell short of the astounding $200 million domestic opening of Black Panther last year, it did amass an impressive $153 million stateside and $455 million worldwide in its opening weekend.
Despite a group of individuals that tried to defeat Captain Marvel ahead of its release by review bombing it on Rotten Tomatoes, and then IMDB, Captain Marvel was always going to be successful for the mere fact that it was a Marvel Studios product. Add in the fact that it's the first Marvel Studios film led by a female hero, and, well, the $140 million opening predicted by Box Office Pro months out from its release seemed pretty reasonable. But now that the film has crossed $500 million at the worldwide box office, experts are saying $1 billion is all but a lock.
So, when can we expect to see the Marvel Studios flick accomplish the stunning feat? Judging by its predecessors and fellow comic book films to hit the $1 billion mark, Captain Marvel seems likely to cross the major milestone in approximately four weeks.
For comparisons sake, Black Panther opened to $404 million worldwide last year, with $200 million of that coming from the domestic box office alone. It went on to pass $1 billion at the worldwide box office in just 26 days, or approximately four weeks. That film, of course, was an "event" in the sense that it launched an entire online movement with the #BlackPantherChallenge, which helped to send underprivileged children and their parents and/or guardians to see the film. And as word of mouth continued to grow, so did its box office, leading to Black Panther becoming one of a handful of films to cross $700 million at the domestic box office, along with earning an impressive $646.8 million at the international box office.
It remains to be seen whether Captain Marvel will do the same level of business, as most of its gains are coming from international markets thus far. Still, it's safe to assume it'll fare better than DC and Warner Bros. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. That film had an impressive start, and still holds a March opening title to this day thanks to its $166 million stateside and $422 million worldwide launch. While impressive, Batman v Superman quickly died out due to poor word of mouth, and so the film finished its theatrical run with $873 million. Given that Captain Marvel has plenty of positive buzz behind it, with its opening weekend numbers actually continuing to grow over the course of the weekend, it seems likely that Carol Danvers' MCU debut will repeat as the box office champion this weekend, bringing in at least another $65-$80 million in the process.
Those numbers, along with the film's box office pull throughout the week, should easily bring Captain Marvel near $300 million at the domestic box office by Sunday. By then, the film should also be well on its way past $600 million at the worldwide box office as the movie is tracking to continue to outperform other MCU titles in foreign markets.
But why does the international box office matter so much? Because that is where films such as Venom and Aquaman have done stellar business. In fact, the latter, which only earned a meager $67.8 million domestically over it's first weekend of release, has since gone on to take in $1 billion at the worldwide box office thanks to an international haul of $809.6 million. It's interesting to note that Aquaman not only had a smaller domestic debut than Captain Marvel, but also a smaller international opening -- and yet the DC film still managed to earn $1 billion worldwide after four weeks in release.
Let's look at Captain Marvel's Monday box office for a better idea of what to expect in the coming weeks. After a massive $153 million weekend stateside, Captain Marvel took in another $10.9 million on Monday. That, of course, is well below Black Panther's first Monday. However, it is on par with Aquaman's, a movie that also had the benefit of an extended holiday weekend to help propel it further. Should Captain Marvel continue to take in at least $8 million daily over the course of the week, that'll bring it to nearly $200 million heading into the weekend. With little to no competition until Dumbo hits theaters later this month, Captain Marvel should easily retain its number one spot and take in at least $65 million in its second weekend to take it to a bit under $300 million by Sunday. This should also be when we see the film near $700 million -- again, this is all mere speculation. But it would seem that, should these numbers prove true, it's more than likely Captain Marvel will hit the $1 billion mark two weeks later courtesy of its international pull.
As always, estimates are just that -- estimates -- and anything can change along the lines. Still, when comparing Captain Marvel's box office power to the likes of Black Panther and Aquaman, $1 billion seems to be a likely outcome within four weeks, maybe five weeks, max. Now... when can we expect a sequel to be officially announced?
Directed by Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck, Captain Marvel stars Brie Larson as Carol Danvers, Samuel L. Jackson as Nick Fury, Jude Law as the commander of Starforce, Clark Gregg as Phil Coulson, Lee Pace as Ronan the Accuser, Djimon Hounsou as Korath the Pursuer, Gemma Chan as Minn-Erva, Ben Mendelsohn as Talos, Lashana Lynch as Maria Rambeau, Algenis Perez Soto as Att-Lass, McKenna Grace as a young Carol Danvers and Annette Bening as the Supreme Intelligence.