While official estimates won't be available until closer to the film's release, long-range tracking has Aladdin eyeing a possible $70-$95 million opening for the weekend, with the film possibly growing to $85–$115 million over the four day holiday weekend. Should these numbers stick, that would put the film's opening up there with fellow Disney live-action adaptions, Alice in Wonderland ($116.1 million) and The Jungle Book's $103.2 million opening. Should the film open to the lower end of the estimates, it'd still open above Maleficient and Cinderella, which opened with $69.4 million and $67.8 million, respectively, and this weekend's Dumbo, which will be lucky to reach $50 million.
Of course, long-range tracking isn't necessarily accurate as things can always change leading up to a film's release. Word of mouth could always harm the film, should reviews prove to be less than stellar. There's also the chance that the backlash the film has received online -- whether it be due to the genie or rumors about extras and brownface -- could ultimately hurt the film's box office potential.
Working in its favor, though, is its breathing room between Detective Pikachu and The Secret Lives of Pets 2, two films that are sure to have box office power and share the same demographic. Leaving two weeks between Aladdin and the release of both films was a smart move on Disney's end. However, Disney has also had relatively poor reception with its Memorial Day releases -- Solo, Tomorrowland, and Alice Through the Looking Glass are just some examples -- and that could prove to also be a problem with Aladdin.
Directed by Guy Ritchie, Aladdin stars Mena Massoud, with Naomi Scott as Princess Jasmine, Will Smith as the Genie, Marwan Kenzari as Jafar, Navid Negahban as The Sultan, Alan Tudyk as Iago, Nasim Pedrad as Dalia, Billy Magnussen as Prince Anders and Numan Acar as Hakim. The film arrives in theaters May 24.
(via Box Office Pro.)