Computer scientists have developed an algorithm to determine the likelihood of upcoming movie releases reaching profitability, and the results are a little grim for “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice.”
Utilizing data from 2,506 films released from 2000 – 2010, the program analyzes budgets, casts, directors, date of release and more to come up with the chances of a movie earning a profit of at least $7.3 million at the box office, a number the researchers determined studio executives might reasonly expect inn return on their investment.
According to the computer, Warner Bros’ superhero epic stands a 32% chance of reaching profitability when it debuts in late-March.
Of course, there’s more than just ticket sales that determine a film’s ultimate profitability, and the program doesn’t take into account unknowns, like licensing, or star salaries and bonuses.. “Movies that sell better at the box office may also need bigger investments,” Michael Lash, a PhD student who helped conduct the experiment explained to the Daily Mail. “Thus they do not necessarily provide satisfactory returns for investors.
While some films fared better in the analysis than “Batman v Superman” — Disney’s “Zootopia” has a 55% chance of earning at least $7.3 million in theaters — several scored lower, including Don Cheadle’s “Miles Ahead” (16%) and horror film “Before I Wake” (13%).
Directed by Zack Snyder and starring Henry Cavill, Ben Affleck, Jesse Eisenberg, Gal Gadot, Amy Adams and others, “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” hits theaters on March 25.